Surfaces, Balls and Reserves – Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost

Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|