The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.
The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.
However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.
Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.
Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.
The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.
In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.
This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.
Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.
While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.
Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.
After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.
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